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Oil and gas prices are soaring. Home values and sales are falling. Foreclosures are rising. The mortgage industry is melting. Bank profits are dissolving. Homeowners are struggling as $1.1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages reset. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is tumbleweed caught in the economic winds.

Happy holidays: The troubled macro economy with its deteriorating consumer confidence could be the Grinch that steals Christmas according to economists and retail analysts.

It is likely to be a softer season than in the past, due, in part, to the credit crunch, mortgages and gas, said Patti Freeman Evans, a senior retail analyst at New York-based Jupiter Research.

The National Retail Federation forecasts nationwide holiday sales to grow 4 percent this year. That is the lowest year-over-year bump since 2002, when sales grew an anemic 1.3 percent.

In Florida, where real estate was king, the sales growth is likely to be less robust. The Florida Retail Federation forecasts 3 percent sales growth over the 2006 season, with Floridians expected to spend an average of $1,325 each on holiday gifts.

The housing market and all those things that are factors in it are down and having an affect on the Florida economy, said Bob McKee, chief economist for the Florida Department of Revenue.

Taxable sales are down in all areas including autos, restaurants, appliances, fixtures and tourism except non-durable goods. Those are everyday items such as clothing, groceries and paper products.

In Broward County, taxable sales in July the most recent data available were $2.6 billion, a drop of 3.2 percent compared to the same month last year, according to Department of Revenue data.

In Palm Beach County, they fell the same percentage that month to $1.78 billion.

Sales grew slightly in Miami-Dade County to nearly $3.29 billion in July, from $3.23 billion the year prior. McKee termed part of the sales slump as the demise of the real estate-generated wealth effect.

People are perceiving that they are not generating wealth like they were, he said. Consumer confidence is always a major driver.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which has been falling since August, slipped to 95.6 in October, marking nearly a two-year low.

Many retailers enter the holiday season coming off the weakest October since 1995. Dillard’s, JCPenney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Gap and Ann Taylor all saw October sales tumble, according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

This is spurring unusually early discounting and promotions aimed at getting consumers into the holiday spirit.

The game of chicken that the retailer plays with the consumer is just a matter of time, said Jeffrey Klinefelter, senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray & Co. It is already happening.

Chains such as Target and JCPenney are cutting prices to drive traffic and bolster spending, according to Piper Jaffray research. And, as the season kicks into to high gear, Klinefelter said he expects this season to be a merry one for bargain hunters as retailers look for ways to move holiday inventory.

By category, wholesale clubs fared the best, cashing in on consumers yearning for value and bolstering October sales 5.8 percent over last year. Luxury stores also saw October sales increase 3.3 percent.

Furniture sales, which soared along with the real estate market, continue to be slapped by the home-buying downturn. For the year, furniture sales are down 11.3 percent, according to ICSC data.

It has been tough sliding in the furniture industry this year. People buy a lot of their furniture when they are buying new homes and, with new homes sales down across the country furniture, retailers across the country have been struggling, said Keith Koenig, president of Tamarac-based City Furniture. The holiday season is always the best part of the furniture year for us. People buy furniture in existing homes and they like to redo their homes around the holidays. It is the best time of the year, but [revenue] is still down a little over 10 percent from last year. Koenig said he does not expect furniture buying to rebound until home buying does.

The Federal Communications Commission has issued an order barring franchise cable operators such as Comcast Corp. from enforcing deals that make them exclusive video service providers in apartments, condominiums and other residential developments.

The ruling, issued Oct. 31, was pushed for and lauded by telecommunications companies such as AT&T (NYSE: T), which are adding video to the services they offer and want to be able to break into multiple dwelling units.

Exclusive deals with apartments and condominium associations are common throughout the industry, said people who negotiate them on behalf of cable companies, associations and developers. Deals with single-family homeowners associations are also done.

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) said about 10 percent of its 24 million customers nationwide could be affected by the FCC’s decision.

Statewide, a few thousand developments are affected, said Gary Resnick, a lawyer in the Fort Lauderdale office of Gray Robinson, P.A. The largest percentage of those are in South Florida, where condominiums are most prevalent.

The FCC’s order does not apply to non-franchise private cable operators. These small companies remain free to negotiate exclusive deals and need to do so to survive, said Don Johnson, president of Clermont-based Paradigm Marketing Group, which negotiates deals on behalf of private operators.

The hardest-hit companies are small franchise cable operators that lack the resources of companies like Comcast, but are equally barred from having exclusive deals.

Gov. Charlie Crist’s Team Florida trade mission to Brazil packed some punch, both in policy and business, trade executives agree.

The Florida-Brazil Business Matchmaker Expo, one of the main components of the Nov. 5-9 mission, netted more than $120 million in actual and expected sales, said Manny Mencia, Enterprise Florida senior VP for international trade and business. He said the governor met with several companies that are looking at ventures in Florida, and that if these ventures pan out, they will total more than $400 million investment in the state.

It was quite a trip, with a lot of good results, Mencia said. A number of South Florida companies participated, and the mission certainly brought a level of visibility to Florida-Brazil trade.

On the policy side, Crist signed a memorandum of understanding with the state of Sao Paulo and pushed for the elimination of the tariff on Brazilian ethanol. Michael Sole, secretary of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, was also on hand to explore alternative energy collaborations with Brazil, which is the world’s largest manufacturer of sugar cane ethanol.

Brian Williams, foreign affairs adviser to the governor, said that as Congress moves toward mandating alternative energy standards, the United States will need to import Brazilian ethanol.

As Brazilian ethanol comes into the U.S., it will most likely come through Florida, he said. A large percentage of South Florida’s international business community is rallying behind getting a reduction in the tariff on Brazilian ethanol because it makes sense.

University of Miami researcher and energy specialist Jorge Piñon agreed that Crist’s speech advocating the elimination of the ethanol tariff is an important step for Floridas economy.